T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 84.9% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the best tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on just 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.