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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
  • T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 68.8% to 76.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a material reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 44.0 figure.

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