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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -118.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -8.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
  • T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 68.8% to 76.7%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 61.7 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • T.J. Hockenson has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a material reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 44.0 figure.
  • T.J. Hockenson's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.34 figure last season.

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