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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 132.2 plays on offense run: the 4th-most among all games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The model projects T.J. Hockenson to accrue 5.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
  • T.J. Hockenson has put up far fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 27.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season reflects a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 44.0 figure.
  • T.J. Hockenson's ability to grind out extra yardage has worsened this season, notching a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.34 mark last season.

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