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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In this week's game, T.J. Hockenson is predicted by our trusted projection set to finish in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets.
  • T.J. Hockenson's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 68.8% to 78.9%.
  • The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • T.J. Hockenson has compiled far fewer air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 41.0.

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