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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The predictive model expects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 5.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
  • T.J. Hockenson's 79.6% Adjusted Catch% this year represents a material boost in his receiving proficiency over last year's 68.8% rate.
  • The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (68.0) versus TEs this year.
  • This year, the porous Commanders defense has been torched for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a whopping 9.69 yards.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.
  • T.J. Hockenson has notched far fewer air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson has totaled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).

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