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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Vikings offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.57 seconds per play.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
  • In this game, T.J. Hockenson is expected by the model to find himself in the 78th percentile among TEs with 5.0 targets.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Minnesota Vikings profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • T.J. Hockenson has put up quite a few less air yards this season (20.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
  • T.J. Hockenson's 27.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 41.0.
  • T.J. Hockenson has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (27.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
  • With a feeble 6.6 adjusted yards per target (17th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson stands as one of the bottom TEs in the pass game in the NFL.
  • T.J. Hockenson's skills in grinding out extra yardage have declined this season, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.34 figure last season.

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