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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

In this week's contest, T.J. Hockenson is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.1 targets.

With an extraordinary 17.8% Target% (89th percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson stands among the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.

When it comes to air yards, T.J. Hockenson grades out in the towering 96th percentile among TEs last year, accruing a superb 52.0 per game.

T.J. Hockenson comes in as one of the top tight ends in the pass game last year, averaging a stellar 44.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.

Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.

Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.

With a weak 68.8% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson rates among the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs.

With a subpar 3.34 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (15th percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson places as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL in the open field.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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