T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs this week, implying more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 9.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 3.83 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a significant decline in his efficiency in space over last year's 6.2% mark.
This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a mere 6.7 yards.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been quite strong when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 2.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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