T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 69.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The model projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
After totaling 59.0 air yards per game last year, T.J. Hockenson has posted significant losses this year, now boasting 51.0 per game.
T.J. Hockenson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, averaging a mere 4.14 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 figure last year.
This year, the stout 49ers defense has surrendered a meager 54.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in football.

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