T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this year, averaging a measly 4.73 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 figure last year.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.4%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (60.4%).

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