T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 40.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 3.76 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 mark last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.