T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+173/-254).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +242 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +173.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
T.J. Hockenson has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.6% this year, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has posted a whopping 49.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 89th percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.33 per game.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's 39.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 70.5%.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the 5th-least TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.11 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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