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Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Theo Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-495).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +370 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Giants are a huge 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Giants offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
  • The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may go down.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the New York Giants grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles safeties project as the worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Giants to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • At the moment, the 10th-most run-focused offense in the league near the end zone (46.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New York Giants.
  • This year, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a paltry 65.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in the NFL.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the fewest touchdowns through the air in the league to TEs: 0.14 per game this year.

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