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Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Theo Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-280).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +225 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Giants are expected by the model to call 65.7 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The New York Giants have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
  • In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Giants ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
  • The Washington Commanders pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.9%) vs. tight ends this year (79.9%).
  • This year, the poor Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a colossal 0.69 TDs through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-highest rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the New York Giants to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.
  • The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

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