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Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Theo Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+151/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -158 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 139.7 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New York Giants have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Giants ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.
  • As it relates to safeties rushing the passer, New Orleans's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the New York Giants to be the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.1%) to tight ends this year (70.1%).

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