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Theo Johnson

Theo Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Theo Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -7-point disadvantage, the Giants are enormous underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their typical game plan.
  • The Giants have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 61.0 plays per game.
  • The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.
  • The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.9%) to tight ends this year (79.9%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New York Giants to pass on 55.1% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Giants to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.

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