Tez Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tez Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Tez Johnson

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2025

Updated Dec 12, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Tez Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1050/-1500).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1500.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (59.2% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving TDs in football to WRs: 1.23 per game this year.
The opposing side have rushed for the 10th-fewest touchdowns in the league (0.77 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.9 per game) this year.
The Falcons defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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