Terry McLaurin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 18, 2025

Updated Jan 5, 2026 12:27 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-440).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -440 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -440.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Josh Johnson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their standard game plan.
To the extent of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.76 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
With an extraordinary 25.0% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
As it relates to air yards, Terry McLaurin ranks in the towering 90th percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 90.0 per game.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
Terry McLaurin's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 70.4% to 61.7%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
The Eagles defense has allowed the fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.38 per game this year.

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