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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-440).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -440 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -440.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Josh Johnson in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their standard game plan.
  • To the extent of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.76 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Commanders as the 3rd-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
  • With an extraordinary 25.0% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Terry McLaurin ranks among the wideouts with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
  • As it relates to air yards, Terry McLaurin ranks in the towering 90th percentile among wide receivers this year, averaging a remarkable 90.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 54.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
  • Terry McLaurin's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 70.4% to 61.7%.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league vs. the Eagles defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Eagles defense has allowed the fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.38 per game this year.

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