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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Commanders may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Josh Johnson.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to see 132.1 total plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
  • Terry McLaurin has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.6% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (50.2% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Commanders.
  • The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (just 54.5 per game on average).
  • Terry McLaurin's 61.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a remarkable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 70.4% mark.
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

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