Terry McLaurin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 14

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders · Week 14, 2025

Updated Dec 8, 2025 1:07 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+196/-255).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -255.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Terry McLaurin has posted far more air yards this year (112.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 61.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 90th percentile for wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin grades out in the 76th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Minnesota's DT corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.5% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Vikings, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.
The predictive model expects Terry McLaurin to be a less important option in his offense's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game (25.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (31.8% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin's 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year indicates a material regression in his receiving talent over last year's 70.4% rate.