Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to earn 7.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack this week (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.0% in games he has played).
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) versus wideouts this year (72.1%).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Terry McLaurin's receiving skills have diminished this season, compiling just 3.5 yards per game compared to 4.6 last season.
Terry McLaurin's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.8% to 56.2%.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.