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Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Terry McLaurin Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 60.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The model projects Terry McLaurin to notch 7.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among WRs.

Terry McLaurin's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates a a material improvement in his receiving talent over last year's 67.4% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

After accruing 88.0 air yards per game last season, Terry McLaurin has gotten worse this season, currently pacing 67.0 per game.

Terry McLaurin's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 58.6.

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