Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+209/-308).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -284 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -308.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (26.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.4% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 61.8% to 66.8%.
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Washington Commanders O-line has given their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has put up quite a few less air yards this season (93.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 59.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 68.0.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.