Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.8% of their downs: the 6th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to have 138.8 total plays called: the highest number among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Saints defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (36.6 per game) this year.
This year, the porous Saints defense has been torched for the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wideouts: a monstrous 5.02 YAC.

Favors Under

Terrace Marshall Jr. has accrued far fewer air yards this season (3.0 per game) than he did last season (29.0 per game).
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s 3.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 24.6.
Terrace Marshall Jr. has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (4.0) this year than he did last year (18.0).
Terrace Marshall Jr. profiles as one of the least efficient receivers in the league, averaging a mere 4.91 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 19th percentile among WRs
With a weak 2.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Terrace Marshall Jr. rates among the best wide receivers in the game in football in the open field.