Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

NFL · Player Props

Terrace Marshall Jr.

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 23, 2024 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Terrace Marshall Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Aidan O'Connell this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Raiders to pass on 62.6% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Las Vegas Raiders to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.1 per game) this year.

Favors Under

After totaling 29.0 air yards per game last year, Terrace Marshall Jr. has produced significantly fewer this year, now sitting at 4.0 per game.
Terrace Marshall Jr.'s 4.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 24.6.
With a subpar 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Terrace Marshall Jr. rates among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL in the league.
Terrace Marshall Jr. checks in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 4.90 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 20th percentile among wideouts
With a lackluster 2.33 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Terrace Marshall Jr. has been among the top WRs in the game in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.