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Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Tee Higgins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+164/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -192.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
  • Tee Higgins has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.0% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Tee Higgins ranks in the 95th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.58 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the projection model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • Tee Higgins has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (85.0 per game) than he did last season (97.0 per game).
  • Tee Higgins's 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 61.4.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

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