Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to garner 8.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Tee Higgins has been among the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an impressive 5.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Tee Higgins's 47.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 60.1.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated play action on a lowly 18.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.