Tee Higgins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-137/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
This week, Tee Higgins is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.
Tee Higgins has notched quite a few more air yards this season (79.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point surge in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Tee Higgins has been more prominently utilized in his team's passing offense.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
Tee Higgins's 43.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season's 74.0 figure.
Tee Higgins's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 71.6% to 48.4%.
Tee Higgins's pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, compiling just 6.41 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.99 figure last season.