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Taysom Hill

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

Taysom Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+107/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Taysom Hill has averaged 5.3 carries per game this year, one of the largest rates in football among QBs (81st percentile).

Taysom Hill has rushed for many more yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (30.0).

Taysom Hill's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 7.19 yards-per-carry vs a measly 5.37 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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