Taylor Heinicke TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Taylor Heinicke

NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Atlanta Falcons

TD Passes

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 16, 2023

Updated Dec 25, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Atlanta offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Falcons to pass on 51.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 49.2% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect Taylor Heinicke to throw 33.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.7 pass attempts per game versus the Colts defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
Taylor Heinicke's 50.9% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a noteable regression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 63.0% mark.

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