Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Taylor Heinicke

QB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Taylor Heinicke Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.8% run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (8.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.7% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Taylor Heinicke to notch 2.3 carries this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Taylor Heinicke has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (20.0).