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Tank Dell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-128/-102).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -128.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Nathaniel Dell has been less involved as a potential target this year (83.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (72.0%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.Nathaniel Dell's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, averaging a mere 3.4 adjusted catches vs 4.5 last year.With a lackluster 58.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (22nd percentile) this year, Nathaniel Dell rates among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
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