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Tank Dell Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Nathaniel Dell has been used less as a potential target this season (82.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (72.0%).The model projects Nathaniel Dell to total 7.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.Nathaniel Dell is positioned as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 3.8 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.This year, the imposing Tennessee Titans defense has given up a puny 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.
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