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Tank Dell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-129/-106).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 39.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -129.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Nathaniel Dell has been less involved as a potential target this year (83.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (72.0%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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After accruing 97.0 air yards per game last year, Nathaniel Dell has seen a big decrease this year, currently sitting at 72.0 per game.The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.Nathaniel Dell has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (43.0) this year than he did last year (66.0).With a lackluster 58.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (22nd percentile) this year, Nathaniel Dell rates among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.Nathaniel Dell's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, notching a mere 7.50 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.93 rate last season.
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