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Tank Dell

Tank Dell Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Tank Dell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Nathaniel Dell has been used less as a potential target this season (82.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (72.0%).

The model projects Nathaniel Dell to total 7.2 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among wide receivers.

This year, the deficient Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 5.31 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.

Nathaniel Dell has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (69.0 per game) than he did last year (97.0 per game).

The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

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