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Tank Bigsby

Tank Bigsby Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Tank Bigsby Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+810/-2400).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2400.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

While Tank Bigsby has accounted for 47.8% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Philadelphia's ground game near the goal line in this week's game at 3.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Tank Bigsby has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 1st percentile among RBs.

As it relates to air yards, Tank Bigsby ranks in just the 25th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -1.0 per game.

Tank Bigsby comes in as one of the worst possession receivers in football among RBs, hauling in a measly 60.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, grading out in the 12th percentile.

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