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Tank Bigsby

Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

Tank Bigsby Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A running game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

Tank Bigsby has garnered 46.0% of his offense's run game usage last year, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.

With an excellent tally of 53.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (79th percentile), Tank Bigsby stands as one of the leading pure rushers in the NFL last year.

Tank Bigsby's ground effectiveness (4.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (81st percentile among RBs).

Last year, the poor Panthers run defense has allowed a staggering 190.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.9% run rate.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.

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