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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+260/-300).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -300.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 9th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 134.1 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
  • After accruing 34.0 air yards per game last year, Sterling Shepard has shown good development this year, currently sitting at 41.0 per game.
  • Sterling Shepard's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.3% to 77.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
  • Sterling Shepard has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league when it comes to wide receivers and tight ends (91st percentile).
  • The New Orleans Saints defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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