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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-570).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -510 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -570.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

The projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.

The Buccaneers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.2 plays per game.

While Sterling Shepard has accounted for 7.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Tampa Bay's pass game near the end zone this week at 15.0%.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers offense to tilt 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard now calling the plays.

The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Eagles, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.2 per game) since the start of last season.

Sterling Shepard, who has garnered 5.9% of his team's rush attempts near the end zone since the start of last season (98th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wide receiver) of being involved in the Buccaneers red zone ground game.

The receiving TD column reads "0" on Sterling Shepard's box scores this year.

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