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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+425/-620).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -375 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -620.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (58.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).

The leading projections forecast Sterling Shepard to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (13.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.9% in games he has played).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Sterling Shepard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.3% to 70.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Buccaneers are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Sterling Shepard has received 6.2% of red zone carries since the start of last season (0th among wideouts).

More Sterling Shepard Player Props

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