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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Sterling Shepard Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+485/-760).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -730 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -760.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (59.9% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • After accumulating 34.0 air yards per game last season, Sterling Shepard has gotten better this season, currently averaging 39.0 per game.
  • The Tampa Bay O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • Sterling Shepard's 74.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a meaningful gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 64.3% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.1% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the New Orleans Saints defense this year: fewest in football.
  • The leading projections forecast Sterling Shepard to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack near the goal line in this week's contest (8.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.0% in games he has played).
  • Sterling Shepard grades out in the 23rd percentile among WRs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.08 per game.

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