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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-126/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
  • Sterling Shepard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.3% to 70.2%.
  • As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, New York's collection of LBs has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the 3rd-worst in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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