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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (61.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

The Texans safeties rank as the worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Since the start of last season, the stout Texans defense has given up a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the best rate in the NFL.

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