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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+140).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense last year: 9th-most in the NFL.

The Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Last year, the deficient Atlanta Falcons pass defense has been gouged for a massive 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Atlanta Falcons safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league last year in covering pass-catchers.

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