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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Buccaneers since the start of last season (a mere 55.4 per game on average).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Sterling Shepard's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.3% to 70.2%.

Since the start of last season, the anemic New York Jets defense has allowed the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wideouts: a massive 8.66 yards.

Since the start of last season, the shaky New York Jets defense has yielded the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 4.34 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.9 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

With a poor 2.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Sterling Shepard stands as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL in the open field.

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