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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-118).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.As it relates to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.Sterling Shepard's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 64.3% to 75.2%.The Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 4.5 points.Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 53.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.At the present time, the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Buccaneers.Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.9 per game) this year.While Sterling Shepard has earned 13.1% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much less involved in Tampa Bay's passing offense in this game at 5.0%.
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