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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-111/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -111.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread implies a passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • At the present time, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
  • Sterling Shepard has been used less as a potential target this season (74.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (62.9%).
  • The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Sterling Shepard's 76.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 64.3% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are forecasted by the model to call only 61.9 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
  • Sterling Shepard's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, totaling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.09 mark last year.

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