Sterling Shepard Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Sterling Shepard

NFL · Player Props

Sterling Shepard

WR · New York Giants

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Sterling Shepard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+342/-608).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -405 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -608.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
Sterling Shepard has received a whopping 24.5% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wideouts.
Sterling Shepard's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 89th percentile for WRs.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to WRs: 1.18 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Sterling Shepard to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (15.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.0% in games he has played).
The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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