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Stefon Diggs

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons

 
 
 
Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+180/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -225 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league in the red zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.2% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
  • Stefon Diggs's 86.3% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a substantial boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.7% rate.
  • The opposing side have run for the 8th-fewest touchdowns in the league (0.57 per game) vs. the Falcons defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A rushing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a 5-point favorite in this game.
  • The leading projections forecast the Patriots as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 5th-most sluggish paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the New England Patriots.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 27.0 pass attempts per game versus the Falcons defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
  • After totaling 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 48.0 per game.

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