reorder

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (59.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.

While Stefon Diggs has been responsible for 18.5% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New England's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 25.2%.

Stefon Diggs places in the 76th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a massive 51.1 mark this year.

The Patriots offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Stefon Diggs's possession skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 73.7% to 89.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the Patriots to be the 5th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 53.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the New England Patriots offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.48 seconds per snap.

Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.

After totaling 64.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has been a disappointment this season, currently boasting 51.0 per game.

More Stefon Diggs Player Props

Stefon Diggs TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 8

New England Patriots vs Cleveland Browns

Stefon Diggs Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8